The situation in Myanmar is getting more and more complicated as time passes. The country has been ruled by a junta since a military coup toppled the Aung San Suu Kyi government in early 2021. But the people of the country protested this unjust and unjust coup, they protested widely in the streets. But the military junta did not accept it naturally but brutally persecuted the opposition. There have been widespread allegations of human rights violations. But as the junta's tyranny escalated, the streets became hotter and the military regime gradually collapsed. Even the majority of the country remains under the control of the opposition.

The military coup in Myanmar was not taken for granted by the international world but immediately condemned this unexpected incident. Various countries of the world, including the United States, have imposed military and commercial sanctions on the country. As a result, the poverty-stricken country has created an economic and commercial crisis. But then the military junta has always refused to relinquish power or establish a democratic system in the country. Which has made the overall situation conflictual and unstable.

Overall, while the junta government is in a two-pronged crisis, there is more bad news for them. It has been reported in the international media that the United States has imposed new sanctions against Myanmar. It has been mentioned in the news that individuals and institutions related to the country's army have been brought under this ban. The United States has taken this step to increase the pressure on the country's junta government. In 2021, the military seized power in Myanmar in a coup, and top politicians, including Aung San Suu Kyi, were sentenced in mass arrests and farcical trials.

The US Treasury Department said in a statement that it has imposed sanctions on two individuals and six entities associated with the Myanmar military. The U.S. Treasury alleges that these individuals and entities helped Myanmar's military supply fighter jet fuel and import and stockpile it, enabling it to carry out incessant airstrikes and bombings of civilians.

The crisis in the country began after the Myanmar military seized power in February 2021 and has continued to date. Even the situation is deteriorating day by day. Protesters are fighting against the military. Bloody movements, conflicts, anti-coup protests are still going on. There is a massive crackdown on the protests. Anti-junta government and resistance forces formed. Basically, a civil war has started in the country.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson said in a statement that the military rulers in the country are inflicting suffering and pain on their own people. Pronouncing the old name of Myanmar, he said, the United States is steadfast in its promises tothe people of Burma. The United States will work to prevent the materials used by Myanmar's military to perpetrate atrocities. There was no immediate reaction from Myanmar to the US move, but it is certain that the situation is turning against the junta government.

On the whole, it seems that the circle of the military junta is gradually shrinking. In this situation, the military government must return to the democratic process to overcome the ongoing crisis. A political process must be initiated. Otherwise, the coming days will not be pleasant for them.

Myanmar has recently completed two years since the military took power in a coup. Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory in the November 2020 election.

Before taking office, the Myanmar military overthrew the democratic government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup on 1 February 2021 and arrested senior NLD leaders, including Suu Kyi. Pro-democracy ordinary people and supporters of political parties staged a silent strike to mark the two-year anniversary of a military coup in Myanmar.

Myanmar's Estate Administration Council (SAC) has governed the country since the February 2021 coup. Since taking power, the army has faced unprecedented spontaneous resistance across the country. Here are some aspects of the disappointments, achievements and expectations of the period of military rule.

Frustration: A military coup has plunged Myanmar into a bloody civil war. Rebel groups that have long fought the military regime, protesting civilians, the Government of National Unity (NUG) and members of their armed organization the People's Defense Force (PDF) are engaged in an armed struggle against the military. War crimes and crimes against humanity are being committed daily in Myanmar after the military junta took power. Clashes with the military have left nearly 3,000 people dead, 1.5 million homeless, 40,000 houses burned and 8 million children unable to go to school in the past two years.

According to UN estimates, one and a half million people are suffering from extreme food shortage. The Myanmar army has not yet been able to control most of the country. They are facing attacks by armed groups and PDF in various regions. According to the United Nations, more than 1.2 million people have been displaced by the ongoing conflict with the army since the coup, and the number is rising by hundreds of thousands every month. Myanmar's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who was ousted in a military coup, has been sentenced to a total of 33 years in prison in various cases. More than 16,600 members of Suu Kyi and her party have been arrested by the junta and 13,000 of them are in prison.

Myanmar's military is building large quantities of weapons for use against the country's people. About 13 countries, including Germany, Japan, Ukraine, the United States, Israel and France, are supplying weapons and technology to Myanmar. Despite the imposition of various international sanctions on Myanmar's military, their weapons production has not stopped. These weapons, made with Western-supplied materials and technology, are being used by the Myanmar army to quell ongoing anti-military protests in the country. Many countries that adopted a policy of neutrality on the Myanmar issue have not stopped doing business with the military regime. Various arms companies from China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, Singapore, Israel, Ukraine are supporting Kapasa, a small arms production company used by the Myanmar army, with raw materials and other necessary equipment. Myanmar receives most of its support in the production of small arms from China, Russia and India. Many believe that ending arms support to the military would improve the situation.

Two years after assuming power, the military government has announced the extension of the ongoing state of emergency for another six months. In this situation, the election which was supposed to be held by August 2023 as promised, has become uncertain. Elections will not be held under a state of emergency, but will be one-sided and aimed at ensuring that the army-backed party remains in power.

Strict conditions have been imposed on political parties to be eligible for elections. According to the United States and Western countries, almost all of the rules the military government has touted have been accepted by the Union Solidarity and Development Party, which the NLD defeated in the 2015 and 2020 elections. It is understood from the election plan of military rulers, they will not allow NLD to participate in this election. That is why the NLD has called on the people to boycott the election organized by the military regime.

Findings: On January 31, 2023, Britain, the United States, Canada and Australia imposed new sanctions against Myanmar's military-linked organizations. The new ban also includes the managing director and deputy managing director of MOGE. In February 2022, the European Union (EU) imposed a ban on MOGE. The ban was imposed because of a series of human rights abuses in Myanmar and because the junta's MOG was the source of funds for these repressions. The United States and the United Kingdom have not taken any such action. Britain, along with other countries, has imposed sanctions against companies that supply fuel to Myanmar's military. The ban is aimed at reducing access to money, fuel, weapons and equipment for the army. Australia has imposed sanctions against two major business firms that dominate the military-controlled economy. The US has imposed sanctions on Myanmar's Union Election Commission, mining entrepreneurs, energy officials and current and former military officials. The US has also imposed sanctions on former and current Myanmar military officials.

The US Treasury Department has accused Russian-made aircraft of carrying out airstrikes against civilians. On January 31, Canada imposed sanctions on six people from Myanmar and announced a ban on the export, sale and supply of aviation fuel. Britain has imposed sanctions on two companies and two individuals for helping Myanmar's air force supply jet fuel used to carry out bombings against its own citizens.

In December 2022, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on Myanmar for the first time. The resolution called for an immediate end to the violence as well as the release of all prisoners, including the country's political leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The resolution passed emphasizes on solving the Rohingya problem. The resolution called on the Myanmar authorities to identify the root causes of the Rohingya crisis and create an enabling environment for their safe, sustainable and dignified repatriation, and emphasized the speedy and full implementation of the five-point consensus adopted by ASEAN member states in 2021 to resolve the problem.

About half of Myanmar is now under the control of the National Unity Government (NUG). The popular resistance against the military government continues, which is a major achievement of the NUG. Many military personnel and civilian members of the administration have defected to the junta government. This kind of unity has not been seen before in the history of Myanmar. The Arakan Army (AA) has for the first-time pledged cooperation to the NUG after the National Unity Government (NUG) announced that it would establish Myanmar as a federal state and introduce regional autonomy there. The NUG is now revived due to the 'Burma Act 2022' announced by the US. The Burma Act mentions the establishment of democracy as well as the democratization of the region including Myanmar. The NUG felt that their activities were recognized by the Burma Act. A number of countries have expressed interest in working with the NUG. Regarding the Rohingya, the spokesperson of the NUG said that the Rohingya are their people and they will ensure justice for the atrocities committed against them. These problems will be solved if democracy is re-established in Myanmar. They have assured to protect the rights of Rohingyas by recognizing them as citizens of Myanmar.

Expectations: The path to a peaceful solution to Myanmar's disastrous situation remains uncertain. All political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, need to be released immediately to resolve the ongoing crisis. Restoring democracy requires handing over power to democratic governments through peaceful elections and holding accountable those responsible for attacks on civilians and ongoing violence. To ensure these, Western countries should effectively implement the sanctions imposed. ASEAN and regional powers must act together to bring the situation in Myanmar under control as well as provide effective assistance to alleviate the suffering of the people and ensure their normal livelihood.

Safe repatriation of the Rohingya is unlikely to be sustainable without an end to military rule in Myanmar and changes to the 1982 citizenship law. The NUG has said it will change the law if it comes to power. Although the Arakan Army initially resisted the Rohingyas, a representative of their political party United League of Arakan (ULA) said that they are ready to take back the Rohingyas and they want the cooperation of Bangladesh. The Arakan Rohingya National Alliance (ARNA) formed to work for the interests of the Rohingyas should work actively with the Arakan Army and the NUG and involve the United Nations in this process. The Rohingya issue is complicating Bangladesh's internal and regional security situation, and instability along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border threatens to destabilize the entire region. In the ongoing context, peace will return to Myanmar and the Rohingyas who have taken refuge in Bangladesh will return safely to Myanmar - this is what everyone expects.

Oil and gas is the biggest source of foreign exchange for Myanmar's military junta. The oil companies operating in the country are operating in the oil and gas sector and the militarygovernment is benefiting from this. These companies are financing the brutal activities of the army. Most of the country's major and important oil and gas projects are owned by the state-owned Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). From October 2021 to March 2022, the income from this sector was 172 million dollars. According to various sources, most of the oil and gas contractors in Myanmar after the coup are from the US, UK and Ireland.

Opium production in Myanmar has increased dramatically and reached its highest level in nine years, according to the United Nations. About 40 percent of the country's population lives below the poverty line. Due to the economic crisis, many people have left the cities and joined the opium cultivation in the countryside.

Two years after assuming power, the military government has announced the extension of the ongoing state of emergency for another six months. In this situation, the election which was supposed to be held by August 2023 as promised, has become uncertain. Elections will not be held under a state of emergency, but will be one-sided and aimed at ensuring that the army-backed party remains in power.

Strict conditions have been imposed on political parties to be eligible for elections. According to the United States and Western countries, almost all of the rules the military government has touted have been accepted by the Union Solidarity and Development Party, which the NLD defeated in the 2015 and 2020 elections. It is understood from the election plan of military rulers, they will not allow NLD to participate in this election. That is why the NLD has called on the people to boycott the election organized by the military regime.

Findings: On January 31, 2023, Britain, the United States, Canada and Australia imposed new sanctions against Myanmar's military-linked organizations. The new ban also includes the managing director and deputy managing director of MOGE. In February 2022, the European Union (EU) imposed a ban on MOGE. The ban was imposed because of a series of human rights abuses in Myanmar and because the junta's MOG was the source of funds for these repressions. The United States and the United Kingdom have not taken any such action. Britain, along with other countries, has imposed sanctions against companies that supply fuel to Myanmar's military. The ban is aimed at reducing access to money, fuel, weapons and equipment for the army. Australia has imposed sanctions against two major business firms that dominate the military-controlled economy. The US has imposed sanctions on Myanmar's Union Election Commission, mining entrepreneurs, energy officials and current and former military officials. The US has also imposed sanctions on former and current Myanmar military officials.

The US Treasury Department has accused Russian-made aircraft of carrying out airstrikes against civilians. On January 31, Canada imposed sanctions on six people from Myanmar and announced a ban on the export, sale and supply of aviation fuel. Britain has imposed sanctions on two companies and two individuals for helping Myanmar's air force supply jet fuel used to carry out bombings against its own citizens.

In December 2022, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on Myanmar for the first time. The resolution called for an immediate end to the violence as well as the release of all prisoners, including the country's political leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The resolution passed emphasizes on solving the Rohingya problem. The resolution called on the Myanmar authorities to identify the root causes of the Rohingya crisis and create an enabling environment for their safe, sustainable and dignified repatriation, and emphasized the speedy and full implementation of the five-point consensus adopted by ASEAN member states in 2021 to resolve the problem.

About half of Myanmar is now under the control of the National Unity Government (NUG). The popular resistance against the military government continues, which is a major achievement of the NUG. Many military personnel and civilian members of the administration have defected to the junta government. This kind of unity has not been seen before in the history of Myanmar. The Arakan Army (AA) has for the first-time pledged cooperation to the NUG after the National Unity Government (NUG) announced that it would establish Myanmar as a federal state and introduce regional autonomy there. The NUG is now revived due to the 'Burma Act 2022' announced by the US. The Burma Act mentions the establishment of democracy as well as the democratization of the region including Myanmar. The NUG felt that their activities were recognized by the Burma Act. A number of countries have expressed interest in working with the NUG. Regarding the Rohingya, the spokesperson of the NUG said that the Rohingya are their people and they will ensure justice for the atrocities committed against them. These problems will be solved if democracy is re-established in Myanmar. They have assured to protect the rights of Rohingyas by recognizing them as citizens of Myanmar.

Authored By; Harunur Rasid

Harunur Rasid, is a London-based Bangladeshi expatriate who is a Bangladesh and Myanmar affairs observer, analyst, and researcher.

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