Renaissance Capital Sees Significant Upside in Dangote Refinery, Lifts Valuation by 33.4 percent

Leading investment research firm Renaissance Capital Africa (RCA) has upgraded its valuation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE to N700.41 per share, implying a 33.4 per cent upside from the refinery's IPO offer price of N525 per share.

According to RCA, the valuation increase reflects the refinery’s exceptional earnings performance in the first nine months of 2026, driven by stronger refining margins and better-than-anticipated operational results. Revenue, EBITDA and net profit all exceeded the firm’s expectations during the period.

In its October 16, 2026, update, titled “Stronger Refining Margins Drive Earnings Outperformance,” the investment firm cited robust refining margins and stronger operating results as key drivers of the enhanced valuation.

The remarkable investor interest comes against the backdrop of the refinery’s strong operational and financial performance. For the nine months ended September 30, 2026, Dangote Petroleum Refinery reported revenue of US$22.5 billion and net profit of US$4.7 billion, representing one of the strongest financial performances recorded by an African industrial enterprise in recent years.

The results marked a significant turnaround from the corresponding period in 2025, when the company recorded a loss of US$117.2 million. Revenue grew by 144 percent from US$9.2 billion, while EBITDA increased nearly nine-fold to US$5.5 billion from US$627.6 million. Operating cash flow rose more than ten-fold to US$3.68 billion, underscoring the refinery’s growing ability to generate substantial earnings and cash flow from its operations.

The company also strengthened its balance sheet considerably, moving from a net debt position of US$1.73 billion as of September 2025 to a net cash position of US$651 million by September 2026, reflecting improved liquidity and financial resilience.

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