The Russia-India-China (RIC) Alliance and Its Impact on Bangladesh

The global order is undergoing a significant transformation due to the assertive and ambitious foreign policy of President Donald Trump, which has led to an unprecedented alignment of the three principal Asian powers Russia, India, and Chinaresulting in menacing implications.

 The establishment of the RIC (Russia-India-China) axis and the impact of BRICS on global affairs present both difficulties and opportunities for Bangladesh in the context of geopolitics, particularly regarding the intricate relationships among major countries in a multipolar world.

President Donald Trump’s return has significantly invigorated the rapid diplomatic transformation in South Asia, as many observers now describe it. The administration’s declaration of tariffs reaching 50% on Indian goods, the highest in over a century, coupled with its demand for the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on both China and India, signifies a significant escalation in economic conflict. This aggressive strategy, inadvertently targeting both nations for their continued purchases of Russian oil, has unexpectedly unified three states that have traditionally maintained intricate, if not antagonistic, relations.

While Trump’s aggressive trade policies ostensibly counter the influence of China and Russia, Beijing simultaneously implores Iran to cease its oil purchases. Meanwhile, India maintains its position with other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, where the symbolic alliance of Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping alongside Vladimir Putin in joint photographs signifies a new phase of strategic communication. Trump's response was swift and public: “We must liberate India, Russia, and the Chinese Communist Party from the profound depths of dark China.”

The RIC collaboration is notably significant due to Trump’s erratic foreign policy and dependence on economic pressure. “The recent proposal by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to reinstate the RIC format signifies Russia’s strategic intent to counterbalance the West while capitalising on the enhancement of India-China relations in the region,” he stated. For India, the most tariffed U.S. nation for a century, the RIC framework offers prompt economic assistancethrough inexpensive Russian energy and Chinese-manufactured components.

The economic rationale is as compelling. Russian hydrocarbons, acquired at substantial discounts, sustain India’s refiners, whereas Chinese upstream inputs, ranging from lithium-ion cells to active medicinal ingredients, are crucial for India’s manufacturing and green transition ambitions, which have begun to deplete. The alignment offers embattled China the prestige of being perceived as a responsible global power and a means to counteract pressure from the United States.

The RIC rapprochement is occurring against the broader context of BRICS expansion, which now presents a significant challenge to the U.S.-dominated global order. Bangladesh has seen a reset within its foreign policy right after Sheikh Hasina resigned and Professor Dr. Muhammad Yunus took over as the chief advisor of the Interim government of Bangladesh, building a companionable relationship with both China and Pakistan as well as balancingBangladesh’s foreign policy with the West, particularly the United States.

The ramifications extend far beyond economic concerns to more profound matters of world governance. BRICS nations are asserting their influence on the world stage with increased vigour, challenging the notion that Western countries had exclusive authority in establishing global regulations. Any effort by the bloc to pursue de-dollarisation and implementalternative payment systems threatens American financial hegemony. Trump’s trade policies are inadvertently accelerating this transformation. These represent both potential and problems for Bangladesh if Bangladesh seeks to join the BRICS initiative at this moment. However, Bangladesh had tried to join the BRICS Initiative back in 2023, but the membership was not approved, even though the regime tried to get full support from China and India.

Currently, Bangladesh’s strategic shift is indeed generating tensions with India. Under the interim government led by Professor Dr. Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh has prioritisedChinese interests in its foreign policy, with his inaugural international travel being historically significant in Beijing. This would be a notable deviation from the custom of newly elected Bangladeshi leaders doing their inaugural foreign visit to India.

The ramifications for Bangladesh’s political landscape are substantial. The power dynamics between the nation’s two largest parties are now evolving in contrasting directions. The historically pro-China Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is deepening engagement with China, while the Bangladesh Jamaat E Islami may also need to recalibrate its stance. China is methodically engaging with all significant Bangladeshi political groups, including the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the National Citizens Party, signifying China’s long-term strategic agenda. The current critical question is whether this RIC unity transcends just tactical considerations or represents a fundamental transformation in global politics. The latter would have an impact on Bangladesh’s domestic politics, undoubtedly.

Nonetheless, considerable obstacles persist. The intrinsic disparities between India and China, particularly on border issues and China’s support for Pakistan, continue to generate tension. From experts’ observations, it is seen that Russia might ask China to continue its support for Pakistan as it currently does. China can guarantee to India that peace and tranquillity will be upheld along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The durability of Bangladesh’s worldview, its relationship with China will mostly depend on domesticpolitics. A change in foreign policy direction is feasible following the forthcoming 2026 elections.

Bangladesh is in a precarious situation and must engage in astute diplomacy. The nation must also cultivate several strategies:  Rather than aligning with specific factions, Bangladesh could vary its approach by enhancing its middle-power collaborations with nations such as Turkey, Brazil, South Korea, and the Gulf states. By adopting this method, dependence on any singular significant power is reduced, hence enhancing strategic autonomy. Furthermore, Bangladesh must leverage its geopolitical position and burgeoning economy to achieve this objective. The interim government’s ability to secure Chinese commitments above $1 billion while maintaining commercial relations with the West demonstrates the authenticity of this possibility.

Engagement in institutions and active participation in various multilateral forums, such as BRICS and Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), enable Bangladesh to advocate for its interests across many international platforms without singular alignment. The diplomatic institutions and economic competencies within foreign services must be strengthened to manage complex relationships with large nations effectively. Bangladesh must assume an active role in regional organisations rather than merely reacting to moves sponsored by major powers. The rise of the RIC axis presents Bangladesh with both new opportunities and new risks. A more direct Russia-India-China axis may provide opportunities for intermediate powers such as Bangladesh, but it also risks entangling smaller states in an unmanageable great-power struggle.

Bangladesh’s optimal strategy would be to adhere to what foreign policy experts’ term “strategic multi-alignment” collaborating judiciously with various partners driven by self-interest, with the objective being economic advancement rather than ideological alignment. The essential objective is to maintain a genuinely independent foreign policy for Bangladesh. Achieving equilibrium between leverage and hedging in the context of great power competition represents the paramount challenge for Bangladeshi statecraft movingforward.

The Trump period may be transient, while the accelerating multipolar globe is enduring. Bangladesh’s efficacy in this new context would depend on its capacity to assimilate foreign policy frameworks to address developmental priorities while maintaining strategic autonomy amidst a complex interplay of global dynamics. Securing own national and foreign interest will be the top priority for Bangladesh to put on the list of utmost importance, Bangladesh needs to respond to the RIC axis and its initiatives diplomatically, creating a new geopolitical shift.

×