2015: The odds against Jonathan’s Return Bid

The die is cast and February 14, 2015 Presidential poll is only a matter of weeks away, with political fireworks between the two contending major political parties, the PDP and APC set to hit the road running in full flight.

While the ruling PDP has increased its financial muscle through the raising of over 21 billion naira to consolidate on electronic and print media campaigns, technically kick-started a long time ago by Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria, TAN, Protectors Of Nigerian Posterity and other Pro Jonathan’s support groups, the main opposition All Progressives Congress, APC has managed to raise a paltry N 54m from Nigerians, particularly in the South-Eastern geopolitical zone for General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd) to confront President Goodluck Jonathan. No doubt the declining monthly federal allocation occasioned by the slump in the price of crude oil at the International Market is seriously affecting States, hence the challenge of APC State governors to muster enough funds to back Buhari can only get tougher.

Little wonder reports claim the APC may approach former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other money bags to enable it execute affective media and door-to-door campaigns in the run-off to the eagerly anticipated February 14, 2015 Presidential poll likely to be keenly contested.

In as much as President Goodluck Jonathan and his self styled biggest party in Africa, the PDP have the huge financial teeth to squeeze General Muhammadu Buhari and his opposition APC to submission, the Jonathan’s administration will have to do a lot to garner the support of ordinary Nigerians like it did in the 2011 Presidential poll when religious and regional sentiment ran high in his favour.

Unlike in the 2011 poll, President Goodluck Jonathan and his PDP are likely to have difficult battles in Niger Delta and South East States such as Edo, Delta, Rivers, Cross Rivers, Enugu, Imo and Ebonyi. This is due to the fact that some of these States are now APC controlled, while the governors of the affected PDP States who lost out in their Senatorial ambitions due to last minute intrigues are very likely to be “objective and transparent” in the poll.

President Goodluck Jonathan’s chances in the South-West, North East and North Central is also likely to be very slim, no thanks to APC seeming dominance in the South-West and its choice of a Christian Presidential running mate from that region as well as the security challenge in the North East and other parts of that zone, not to talk of General Buhari’s strength in those areas.

The waning popularity of Jonathan’s administration is equally not helped by the downward economic slide and the planned increase taxation on Nigerians with no attendant increase in income.

Another issue likely to affect President Jonathan’s return bid is the worsening power generation and distribution despite privatization as well as corresponding increase in electricity tariff.

The PDP should also make effort to explain why the four refineries across the country are not functional and the preference by the Minister of Petroleum to export our crude oil even though the refineries are in appreciable functional State.

President Goodluck Jonathan will also be confronting perceived sentiment in favour of Ijaws against neighbouring ethnic Nationalities in the Niger Delta in particular, no thanks to the cry of alleged marginalization by the Itsekiri people of Delta State.

Editor-In-Chief

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