“Bangladesh and the Ganges Water Treaty: Renewal Necessity or Strategic Opportunity?”

Bangladesh shares 54 transboundary rivers with India.

Since its independence, there have been two long-standing water-sharing treaties that are still in effect. Apart from the Teesta water sharing ever-lasting unresolved disputed treaty, carrying long historical discussions, negotiations, arguments and debates, the Ganges water sharing treaty was conducted for 30 years on 12th December, 1996 between two trusted neighbours. Now this Ganges treaty is nearly set to expire at the end of this year. 

Despite there being so much speculation of not getting proper amounts of water regarding the treaty, Under the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, Bangladesh receives a fixed share of water mainly during the dry season from January to May. If the water flow at Farakka remains low, Bangladesh is guaranteed at least around 35,000 cusecs in critical periods, while in some cases it receives up to 50% of the total flow. From 1997 to 2026, Bangladesh received less than its treaty shares in 94 of 300 cases. During critical dry spells, Bangladesh didn’t receive the stipulated supply 39 times out of 60. Seventy-nine of Bangladesh’s rivers are now dead or dying. Again, It is a fact that Bangladesh gets at least water during that dry season only based on this treaty. So it's crucial to renew this treaty on the basis of the present conditions of the Ganges water.

A pivotal question arises: why must Bangladesh inevitably renew this treaty? The simple answer is to rescue tributary rivers of Bangladesh in the south-western region and make an impact on six crore people’s livelihood directly. Researchers warn that north-western of Bangladesh is also facing a deepening water crisis as groundwater levels in the Rajshahi region have dropped to nearly 125 feet below the surface, leaving even deep tube wells unable to draw sufficient water. Across the Barind areas of Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, and Naogaon, canals, wetlands, and ponds are drying up before winter ends, creating severe shortages of drinking water and threatening irrigation systems, including the country’s largest Ganges-Kobadak Irrigation Project. Freshwater availability has declined sharply, while rainfall in the Padma Basin has decreased, and temperatures continue to rise. The crisis surrounding the Padma River is also devastating livelihoods and ecosystems. Thousands of fishermen have abandoned their traditional profession over the past decades due to declining fish populations, while hilsa has become increasingly scarce in the river. At the same time, upstream water retention at the Farakka Barrage and sudden monsoon releases continue to trigger floods, erosion, and displacement in Bangladesh. As the Padma weakens, many connected rivers — including the Kapotaksha River and other distributaries flowing toward the Sundarbans — are steadily losing flow and ecological vitality, signalling not just environmental decline, but the gradual collapse of a centuries-old river-based civilization.

The water of the Padma River is also essential for implementing Bangladesh’s proposed Padma Barrage Project because the project aims to store and regulate river water for irrigation, agriculture, fisheries, and ecological restoration in the country’s southwest region. Adequate water flow in the Padma would help revive dying rivers, reduce salinity, improve groundwater recharge, and strengthen food security and livelihoods for millions of people dependent on the river system. If Bangladesh does not get the amount of water which is needed to run the 35000 crore budget, the biggest project of the Padma barrage, which is supposed to be completed by June 2033.

Renewing the Ganges Water Treaty could serve as an important step toward rebuilding bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India by restoring mutual trust and strengthening regional cooperation over shared water resources. It would also reinforce the relevance and functioning of the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), which plays a key role in addressing transboundary river issues. A renewed agreement could create a more stable framework for dialogue, conflict management, and long-term water-sharing cooperation between the two neighbouring countries.

In case of strategic position, as a lower riparian country, Bangladesh may pursue a balanced and proactive diplomatic strategy with India for the renewal of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty. Dhaka may also push for a long-term renewal of the treaty to ensure stability, predictability, and sustainable water management between the two countries. Bangladesh could emphasise a scientific and flow-based water distribution method that reflects the present hydrological realities of the Ganges River, especially during the dry season. At the same time, Dhaka may seek a quick renewal of the treaty while ensuring stronger international legal safeguards. There are two key United Nations conventions on transboundary watercourses: the UN Water Convention of 1992 and the UN Watercourses Convention of 1997. Bangladesh should expedite the ratification of both instruments to strengthen its legal and diplomatic position in managing shared rivers and ensuring fair, equitable, and sustainable water allocation. Strategically, Bangladesh is likely to promote cooperative dialogue, data sharing, basin-wide management, and the effective functioning of the Joint Rivers Commission to maintain long-term regional water stability and bilateral trust.

But the truth is, the renewal of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty between Bangladesh and India is likely, but it will depend on sustained diplomatic engagement and mutual political will. Both countries have strategic interests in maintaining cooperation, so a negotiated extension with possible technical adjustments based on river flow data remains a realistic outcome.

In the end, the key point is that Bangladesh must, by any means necessary, ensure the renewal of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty with India, because without water this region could gradually turn into a desert.

sent-In by: Md. Al-Amin

About the Author: Md. Al-Amin is an educator. He completed his post-graduation from the Department of International Relations at Rajshahi University,Bangladesh. His research interests are Diplomacy, Foreign policy, Border conflicts, and Security issues.

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