Min Aung Hlaing’s India Visit May Reshape Asia’s Political Fault Lines

Twenty-four years later, the chief of the state of Myanmar pays a high-profile, five-day visit while political tensions and dilemmas in Asia unfold under tough circumstances.

In February, 2021 a Coupe was conducted in Myanmar by which the elected government of the Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi was ousted from the political party-led government of Myanmar, leading to a civil war. Then Army chief Min Aung Hlaing declared himself the new president of the army-led government in Myanmar. Again a National Unity Government was formed in cooperation with all political parties elected members of the earlier elections which is deliberately backed by the Western world, especially by America.

On the contrary, Hlaing emerged as the president in a managed election after a controversial parliamentary poll earlier this year saw the return of the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) to power which is openly supported by China and Russia. Interestingly, all rebel groups of Myanmar formed an alliance organisation named the People's Defence Force (PDF) whose main aim was to dislodge the military regime in Myanmar as well. This rebel group is backed up by China and Russia as well. There is a speculation of India's patronisation towards these rebel groups which backfired on them in Manipur. Now it clearly portrays the complexity of Asian politics,doesn’t it?

There is no doubt that Min Aung Hlaing’s first visit to India as Myanmar’s president signals strategic importance for both nations amid China’s rising influence. The arrival of an authoritarian head of state in the world’s largest democracy has triggered mixed reactions. It is also true that the concerns of pro-democracy groups are far from insignificant.

“Now, the important question is: why did India choose to host Mr. Hlaing?” Rajiv Bhatia, a former Indian ambassador to Myanmar said India has three broad interests in Myanmar: stability along its north-eastern frontier, the success of its Act East policy and managing the strategic implications of China's growing influence in the country. Myanmar and India share a 1,643km (1,021-mile) border and developments on one side often have consequences for the other, particularly in India's north-eastern region where security, migration and cross-border trade are closely intertwined with events in the neighbouring country. Consequences of the conflict also spilt across the border into India, with thousands of people, many from Myanmar's Chin ethnic minority, taking refuge in India's north-eastern states of Mizoram and Manipur. The Indian prime minister raised another broader issue related to democracy in the neighbouring country and discussed Aung San Suu Kyi - currently under strict house arrest as well. According to New Delhi’s data, bilateral trade between India and Myanmar amounted to $1.95 billion (Tk 239.85 billion) in the 2025–26 fiscal year. Which actually really matters for New Delhi to make communications with Myanmar. 

During the meetup with Mr Modi, Min Aung Hlaing reiterated Myanmar's assurance that its territory "would not be permitted to be used against India's security interests", while Modi reaffirmed India's support for Myanmar's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The two countries have cooperated on border security and intelligence sharing to combat insurgent groups operating out of the border region. The leaders also discussed cooperation against cybercrime and human trafficking, issues that have affected thousands of Indians lured to scam centres in the region. The impact of the civil war spilt across the border into India. In particular, many people from Myanmar’s Chin community sought refuge in the Indian states of Mizoram and Manipur. In this context, border security and stability between the two countries have become important concerns for India.

For Myanmar side, It is a big diplomatic gain for Myanmar because with this visit the president is getting validation from the world's largest democracy," Rajiv Bhatia, a former Indian ambassador to Myanmar, told the BBC. Myanmar occupies a key place in India's regional strategy as the only member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) that shares a land border with India. He said the visit can have a "positive impact" on Asean countries, as they "strive to develop a coherent approach to the Myanmar question". Gautam Mukhopadhaya, another former Indian ambassador to Myanmar, said Min Aung Hlaing "is trying to acquire greater regional and international respectability as an elected president". So it clearly outlines how Mr Hlaing is desperate to justify its regime towards regional and superpowers. 

Myanmar provides China with a route to the Bay of Bengal, reducing Beijing's dependence on the Strait of Malacca for some trade and energy supplies. Since 2017, China has widened its influence in Myanmar and become more open about supporting its military leadership in pursuit of its own strategic and economic interests. Interestingly, China has played a complex role in Myanmar by maintaining ties with both the military government and several rebel groups through trade, arms, and strategic backing. Many analysts argue that this dual approach has helped sustain the country’s prolonged instability and tense political environment as well. Despite that kind of relationship between these two countries Mr. Hlaing's first choice to visit India is the biggest gamble in Asian politics. Apart from that, about 1.2 million Rohingya refugees have been sheltered by Bangladesh since 2017 whose repatriation process is still in smoke. Nowadays, the Arakan army's uprising near Bangladesh's border and fragile relations with the Myanmar government have worsened the situation. At this stage, without any doubt, this visit definitely impacts Bangladesh sufficiently.

In the end, the visit of Mr Hlaing towards India definitely reshaped the political environment of South Asian politics certainly.

Sent-in by: Md. Al-Amin

Author's Bio: Md. Al-Amin is an educator. He completed his post-graduation from the Department of International Relations at Rajshahi University,Bangladesh. His research interests are Diplomacy, Foreign policy, Border conflicts, and Security issues.

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