It has been two years since the military took power in a coup in Myanmar. Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory in the November 2020 election. Before taking over the office, Myanmar military overthrew the democratically elected government in a coup d'état on 1 February 2021, and seized power in Myanmar and arrested Aung San Suu Kyi and senior leaders of the NLD. Pro-democracy civilians and supporters of political parties staged a silent strike to mark the two-year anniversary of the military coup in Myanmar. Myanmar's Estate Administration Council (SAC) has governed the country since February 2021 coup. After taking the power, the army has faced unprecedented spontaneous resistance across the country. Here are some aspects of the disappointments, achievements and expectations of the military rule during this period.
Frustration: the military coup has plunged Myanmar into a bloody civil war. protesting civilians, members of the Government of National Unity (NUG) and their armed organization the People's Defense Force (PDF)and rebel groups that have long fought the military regime, are engaged in an armed struggle against the military. Since the military junta seized power, war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed daily in Myanmar. Clashes with the military have left nearly 3,000 people dead, 1.5 million homeless, 40,000 houses burned and 8 million children unable to go to school in the past two years. According to the United Nations, one and a half million people are suffering from severe food shortages. Myanmar's army has not yet been able to control most parts of the country. They are facing attacks by armed groups and PDFs in various regions.
According to UN data, more than 1.2 million people have been displaced by ongoing clashes with the army since the coup and the number is rising by hundreds of thousands every month. Myanmar's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, has been sentenced to a total of 33 years in prison in various cases. At least 16,600 members of Suu Kyi’s party have been arrested by the junta and 13,000 of them are in jail. Myanmar's military is building large quantities of weapons for use against their own citizens. Around 13 countries including Germany, Japan, Ukraine, the United States, Israel and France supplied weapons and technology to Myanmar. Despite the imposition of various international sanctions on Myanmar's military, their weapons production has not stopped.
These weapons are manufactured with Western-supplied materials and technology and are being used by the Myanmar army to quell ongoing anti-government protests in the country. Many countries that adopted a policy of neutrality on the Myanmar crisis have not stopped doing business with the military regime. Various arms companies from China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, Singapore, Israel and Ukraine are supporting the small arms production company of Myanmar army, with raw materials and other necessary equipment. For small arms production Myanmar receives maximum support from China, Russia and India. Many believe that stopping arms support to the military will improve the existing situation.
Oil and gas are the biggest sources of foreign exchange for Myanmar's military junta. Companies operating in the oil and gas industry in Myanmar are benefiting the military government. These companies are financing the brutal activities of the army. Most of the country's major oil and gas projects are owned by the state-owned Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). From October 2021 to March 2022, the income from this sector was 172 million dollars. According to the information from various sources after the coup, most of the oil and gas contractors in Myanmar are from the US, UK and Ireland.
According to the United Nations, opium production in Myanmar has increased dramatically, reaching its highest level in nine years. About 40 percent of Myanmar's people live below the poverty line. Due to the economic crisis, many people have left the cities and joined opium cultivation in the countryside. Farmers should be supported to produce other crops instead of opium cultivation for livelihood.
On the completion of two years of taking power, the military government has announced the extension of the ongoing state of emergency for another six months. In this situation, the elections that were supposed to be held by August 2023 as promised have become uncertain. Elections will not be held under a state of emergency. If that takes place even, will be one-sided and aimed at ensuring the army-backed party to remain in power. Strict conditions have been imposed on political parties to be eligible to take part in the elections.
According to the US and Western countries, almost all the rules that the military government has touted have been accepted by the Union Solidarity and Development Party, which the NLD defeated in the 2015 and 2020 elections. The election plan of the military rulers indirectly suggests that they will not allow the NLD to participate in this election. For that, NLD has called upon the people to boycott this election organized by the military ruler. The path to a peaceful resolution of Myanmar's disastrous situation remains uncertain.
Attainment: On January 31, 2023, Britain, the US, Canada, and Australia imposed new sanctions against military-related organizations. The new ban has been inposed on MOGE managing and deputy managing director. In February 2022, the European Union (EU) imposed a ban on MOGE. The ban was imposed because of a series of human rights violations in Myanmar by the military junta and MOGE as a source of funds for the junta for these repressions.
The US and the UK have not taken any action against this company. Along with other countries, Britain has imposed sanctions against companies that supply fuel to Myanmar's military. The ban is aimed at reducing the army's access to money, fuel, weapons and equipment. Australia has imposed sanctions against two major business firms that dominate the military-controlled economy. The US has imposed sanctions on Myanmar's Union Election Commission, mining entrepreneurs, energy officials and current and former military officials. The US Treasury Department has accused Russian-made aircraft of carrying out airstrikes against civilians. On January 31, Canada imposed sanctions on six Myanmar individuals and announced a ban on the export, sale and supply of jet fuel. The UK has imposed sanctions on two companies and two individuals for helping Myanmar's air force by supplying jet fuel used to carry out bombings against its own citizens.
In December 2022, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on Myanmar for the first time. The resolution calls for an immediate end to the violence as well as the release of all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi. The resolution emphasized solving the Rohingya crisis along with other important issues. The resolution identified the root causes of the Rohingya crisis and called on the Myanmar authorities to create an enabling environment for their safe, sustainable and dignified repatriation. It also emphasized the speedy and full implementation of the five-point consensus adopted by ASEAN member states in 2021 to address the problem. Almost half of Myanmar is now under the control of the NUG and other ethnic armed groups. The popular resistance against the military government is ongoing, which is a major achievement of the NUG.
A good number of military personnel and civilian members of the administration have defected to the junta government. This kind of unity has not been seen before in the history of Myanmar. The Arakan Army (AA) has also pledged cooperation with the NUG for the first time after the NUG announced that it would establish Myanmar as a federal state and introduces regional autonomy there. The NUG is now revived due to the 'Burma Act 2022' announced by the US.
The Burma Act mentions the establishment of democracy as well as the democratization of the region including Myanmar. The NUG felt that their activities were recognized by the Burma Act. A number of countries have expressed interest in working with the NUG. Regarding the Rohingya, the NUG spokesperson said that the Rohingya’s are their people and they will ensure justice for the atrocities committed against them. These problems will be solved if democracy is re-established in the country. NUG has assured to protect the rights of Rohingyas by recognizing them as citizens of Myanmar. Last year, the Arakan Rohingya National Alliance (ARNA) was formed to work for the interests of Rohingyas by uniting the political leaders of the Rohingya community. It is expected that this platform will be effective to portray Rohingyas issue in the international arena.
Prospects: For establishing peace and to solve the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi and all the political prisoners need to be released immediately. To re-establish democracy in Myanmar, the transfer of power to democratic governments through peaceful elections, cessation of attacks on civilians, and accountability of those responsible for the ongoing violence are essential. To ensure these, the sanctions imposed by the western countries must be effectively implemented.
ASEAN and regional powers must act together to bring the situation in Myanmar under control and provide effective assistance to alleviate the suffering of the people and ensure their normal livelihood. Safe repatriation of the Rohingyas is unlikely to be sustainable unless Myanmar's military government and the 1982 citizenship act are changed. NUG assured that they will change this act if they can come to power.
Although the AA initially opposed the Rohingyas, a representative of their political party, the United League of Arakan (ULA), said they are ready to take back the Rohingyas and wanted cooperation from Bangladesh. The ARNA should work actively with AA and NUG and involve the UN in this process. The Rohingya issue is complicating Bangladesh's internal and regional security situation. Instability along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border threatens to destabilize the entire region. Everyone hopes that in the near future peace will be established in Myanmar, the Rohingyas who have taken refuge in Bangladesh will return to Myanmar safely and Myanmar will prosper in the region.
Written By: Brig Gen (Retd) Hasan Md Shamsuddin, ndc, afwc, psc
Researcher on Myanmar, Rohingya and ASEAN affairs
Copyright: Fresh Angle International (www.freshangleng.com)
ISSN 2354 - 4104
Sponsored Ad
Our strategic editorial policy of promoting journalism, anchored on the tripod of originality, speed and efficiency, would be further enhanced with your financial support.
Your kind contribution, to our desire to become a big global brand, should be credited to our account:
Fresh Angle Nig. Ltd
ACCOUNT NUMBER: 0130931842.
BANK GTB.
×